Can the Hygiene Industry Resist the Impact of US Tariffs on Fluff Pulp Costs?

I. Policy Background: Tariff Adjustments Reshape the Global Supply Chain Landscape
According to the announcement released by the General Administration of Customs of China in March 2025, starting from April 10, 2025, China will impose an additional 34% tariff on imported goods originating from the United States. Among them, pulp and paper products (including fluff pulp, softwood pulp, and other core raw materials for hygiene products) are clearly included in the taxation list. This policy adjustment directly targets the "lifeblood" of China's hygiene products industry chain: In 2024, the total value of pulp and paper products imported by China from the United States reached 1.895 billion US dollars, with fluff pulp accounting for more than 30%, which is a key raw material for the production of products such as sanitary napkins, adult diapers, and nursing pads.
As the world's largest exporter of fluff pulp (accounting for more than 40% of China's imports), US products have long dominated the high-end hygiene products market due to their technical advantages in fiber length, water absorption, and impurity control. The additional tariff this time will directly increase the import cost. Coupled with the shipping cycle and production capacity limitations, the industry is facing severe challenges in supply chain restructuring in the short term.

II. Short-term Impact: Enterprises Launch the "Rush Shipment Window Period" and Supply Chain Restructuring
Currently, the hygiene products industry has entered the emergency adjustment stage of the supply chain, and the strategies of enterprises show three characteristics:

1.Race Against Time: Customs Clearance Sprint and Inventory Buffer
Enterprises are accelerating the processing of in-transit orders before May 13, 2025, striving to complete customs clearance before the expiration of the tariff exemption. Leading brand manufacturers have stocked up inventory for 2-3 months in advance to cope with short-term supply fluctuations.

2.Differentiation of Raw Material Strategies: Ensuring Quality for High-end Products and Seeking Substitutes for Mid-low-end Products
High-end Product Lines: Give priority to locking in the fluff pulp resources from alternative production areas such as Canada and Northern Europe to ensure the performance stability of ultra-thin sanitary napkins and adult diapers.
Mid-low-end Products: Increase the proportion of domestic fluff pulp procurement. Some enterprises have initiated the testing of raw material formula adjustments and explored the mixed use solutions of domestic and imported pulp.

3.Reconstruction of Supplier Relationships
Leading enterprises have signed long-term agreements with suppliers in Canada, Sweden, and other countries. However, the new supplier certification cycle is as long as 6-8 months, and it is difficult to completely replace US resources in the short term.

III. Medium and Long-term Impact: Technical Barriers and Cost Reconstruction Force Industry Upgrades
The irreplaceability of US fluff pulp will lead to the industry facing three challenges:

1.Transmission of Cost Pressure
With the combination of tariffs and shipping costs, it is expected that the landed price of US fluff pulp may increase by 45%, and the costs of products such as sanitary napkins, adult diapers, and nursing pads will increase significantly.
If small and medium-sized enterprises cannot absorb the costs, they may be forced to withdraw from the high-end market, and the industry concentration may further tilt towards leading enterprises.

2.Dilemma of Technical Substitution
There is still a generational gap in key indicators such as fiber uniformity and impurity control for domestic fluff pulp, making it difficult to meet the technical requirements of ultra-thin and highly absorbent products.
The research and development of special pulp modification technology (such as the research projects of APP (Asia Pulp & Paper) and Sun Paper) has become the key to breaking the situation, but technical breakthroughs require time and capital investment.

3.Reconstruction of the Supply Chain Pattern
Large enterprises are accelerating the layout of the supply chain in Southeast Asia. The expansion of softwood pulp production capacity in Indonesia and Malaysia (new supplies are expected to be formed in 2026) may become the "second battlefield". Small and medium-sized enterprises may shift to the mid-low-end market, and the polarization of the industry will intensify.

IV. Industry Response Strategies and Trend Judgments

1.Parallel Development of Supply Chain Diversification and Technical Attack
Upgrading of the Global Procurement Network: Establish long-term cooperation with suppliers in Canada, Northern Europe, and Southeast Asia to disperse supply risks.
Technical Autonomy: Promote the technological iteration of domestic fluff pulp. The China National Light Industry Council has included fluff pulp in the "Key Materials Import Substitution Catalogue", and policy support may accelerate technical breakthroughs.

2.Price Transmission at the Consumer End and Market Stratification
If the cost pressure persists, it is expected that starting from the third quarter of 2025, the prices of high-end product lines may be adjusted upward, further promoting market stratification. Ordinary product lines reduce costs through domestic substitution to maintain price competitiveness.

3.Policy Communication and Industry Coordination
It is recommended that enterprises join forces with industry associations to strive to include the core raw materials of hygiene products in the "Key Goods Tariff Exemption List" to reduce the impact of policies.

V. Risk Warnings and Industry Outlook

1.Progress of China-US Trade Negotiations
If a phased agreement is reached within 6 months, the tariffs on some goods may be adjusted downward, but the risk of policy fluctuations should be guarded against.

2.Abnormalities in the Southeast Asian Supply Chain
The softwood pulp expansion projects in Indonesia and Malaysia (put into operation in 2026) may reshape the global supply pattern, and enterprises need to make arrangements in advance.

This tariff adjustment is not only a challenge but also a catalyst for industry upgrades. In the short term, supply chain restructuring and cost pressure will accelerate the reshuffle of the industry; in the long term, technical attacks and global layout may promote the high-end and autonomous development of China's hygiene products industry chain. It is recommended that enterprises establish a flexible procurement mechanism, strengthen investment in technology research and development, and closely track policy and market dynamics.

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